ADP Signals Sluggish Job Growth
ADP’s weekly employment report, which tracks payroll data in near real time, showed that U.S. private employers added an average of 10,000 jobs per week in the four weeks ending March 7. That’s only a slight increase from the prior report’s 9,000 weekly average.
What’s the bottom line?
At that pace, private employers added roughly 40,000 jobs over the past month – a relatively weak showing. Combined with the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ February report showing a loss of 92,000 jobs, all eyes will be on the government’s March Jobs Report, due April 3, to see whether hiring picks up or continues to slow.
Jobless Claims Hint at Growing Gig Economy
Initial jobless claims rose slightly by 5,000 to 210,000 in the latest week, still low by historical standards. Meanwhile, continuing claims (people receiving benefits beyond the first week) fell by 32,000 to 1.819 million.
What’s the bottom line?
Low first-time claims may reflect the growing role of gig and contract work, with some displaced workers opting for flexible income options instead of filing for unemployment – especially as benefits often don’t fully cover living expenses. At the same time, continuing claims remain elevated, suggesting that those who are unemployed are taking longer to secure new jobs
What to Look for This Week
Home price data from Case-Shiller and the FHFA is out Tuesday, followed by a retail sales update on Wednesday.
It’s also a big week for labor market news. Reports on job openings arrive Tuesday, followed by private payroll data on Wednesday, weekly unemployment claims on Thursday, and Friday’s closely watched jobs report, which includes non-farm payrolls and the unemployment rate.
Technical Picture
Mortgage Bonds closed back above 99.78 on Friday, remaining in a tight range with resistance near 99.99. Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury ended the week trading around 4.43% after nearing resistance at 4.491%.
All data and analysis provided by MBS Highway.
As always, feel free to call, email, text, or DM if you want to continue the dialogue.
Mike Nelson, CEO - Efficient Lending, Inc
720.419.3016 | mike@efficientlending.net | @mike_lending
NMLS: 1876539 | NMLS: 1314188
