Fed Talk and Geopolitics Shake Markets — New Home Sales Hit a 2026 High - Powered by MBS Highway
Hi, this is Mike Nelson with your weekly market update.Markets had a volatile week. Comments from Federal Reserve officials and fresh geopolitical headlines both played a role.
Several Fed members — including Governor Michael Barr, New York Fed President John Williams, and Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson — suggested another rate hike may still be needed to bring inflation back toward the Fed’s 2% target. The Fed has two meetings left this year, in October and December, and markets raised the odds of a hike at the October meeting.
One important reminder: the Fed Funds Rate is the overnight borrowing rate for banks. It is not the same as mortgage rates. Mortgage rates move with the bond market, inflation expectations, and spreads — not lockstep with Fed decisions.
Geopolitics added another layer of uncertainty. Comments from President Trump and Iran’s president at the U.N. General Assembly kept markets watching the conflict, negotiations, and potential pressure on oil prices.
On the housing side, there was better news. New home sales rose 6.4% in August to an annualized pace of 684,000 — the highest pace of the year and above expectations. July was also revised higher. The median new home price fell 5.8% from a year ago, but that does not automatically mean home values are falling. The median is sensitive to the mix of homes sold, and sales of homes under $500,000 increased notably this August compared with last year.
Looking ahead this week: Case-Shiller and FHFA home prices, JOLTS, MBA mortgage applications, ADP, PCE inflation, GDP, jobless claims, and Friday’s jobs report. Plenty for rates to react to.
If you’re thinking about buying a home or have questions about today’s market, I’m happy to help.
All data and analysis provided by MBS Highway.
Mike Nelson Efficient Lending, Inc. mike@efficientlending | 720.419.3016 NMLS 1876539 | NMLS 1314188
