Existing Home Sales Slip in March
After a rebound in February, existing home sales slowed in March, falling 3.6% according to the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR). At the same time, housing inventory improved, rising 3% from February to 1.36 million homes, up 2.3% from this time last year.
What’s the bottom line?
Even with this increase, inventory remains tight relative to historical norms, continuing to put pressure on the market. According to NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun, limited supply has helped support home prices, and price growth has added significant value for homeowners over time.
In fact, Yun noted that the typical homeowner has gained about $128,100 in housing wealth over the past six years.
Even modest appreciation can make a difference. For example, a $500,000 home gaining 3% in a year would add about $15,000 in value, highlighting how homeownership can build wealth over time.
Builder Confidence Weaker in April
Home builder sentiment fell 4 points to a seven-month low of 34 in April, remaining in contraction territory. Much of this weakness is driven by concerns over rising mortgage rates, geopolitical tensions, and surging construction costs, which are squeezing margins and dampening momentum in the spring housing market. Buyer traffic, along with both current and future sales expectations, declined month over month.
What’s the bottom line?
Builders are pulling back as higher costs, elevated rates, and uncertainty continue to weaken demand and outlook.
At a Glance: Wholesale Inflation and Unemployment
Wholesale inflation rose in March, but not as much as expected. The headline Producer Price Index (PPI) increased 0.5% for the month and 4% year over year, both below forecasts. Core PPI, which strips out food and energy, came in even softer, rising just 0.1% month over month and 3.8% year over year. While inflation remains elevated, these readings came in better than the market feared.
On the labor side, initial jobless claims fell by 11,000 to 207,000. However, continuing claims rose by 31,000 to 1.82 million, indicating that many job seekers are taking longer to find full-time work. Some may also be turning to gig or part-time roles, which aren’t fully reflected in the data.
What to Look for This Week
It’s a relatively light week on the economic calendar, but there are still a few key updates to keep an eye on. On Tuesday, we’ll get the latest data on March Pending Home Sales and Retail Sales. Later in the week, Thursday’s Jobless Claims report is also on tap. Beyond the data, ongoing swings in oil prices and geopolitical developments could continue to influence market activity.
Technical Picture:
Mortgage bonds ended the week higher after Iran announced it would reopen the Strait of Hormuz until the ceasefire with the US expires on April 22. The 10-year Treasury closed the week lower and is headed toward a triple layer of support comprising the 50-, 100-, and 200-day moving averages.
It’s expected that the US/Iran talks will continue over the weekend, and continued good news on the geopolitical front could be the catalyst the market needs.
All data and analysis provided by MBS Highway.
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Mike Nelson, CEO - Efficient Lending, Inc
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