Pending Home Sales Rise, Retail Sales Surprise - MBS Highway Weekly Review - April 20, 2026
Pending home sales ticked up in March, retail sales beat expectations, and jobless claims highlight continued shifts in how people work. Here are the key takeaways.
Pending Home Sales See Modest March Uptick
Pending home sales, which reflect signed contracts on existing homes, rose 1.5% from February to March, exceeding expectations. While activity remains somewhat below this time last year, the monthly increase is a positive sign. The Northeast and South led the gains, while the Midwest and West experienced some slowdown.
What’s the bottom line?
Buyers remain active despite higher mortgage rates, pointing to ongoing pent-up demand, according toLawrence Yun of the National Association of Realtors®. He noted that increased inventory will be key to converting that demand into closed sales
Retail Sales Rise, Driven by Higher Gas Prices
Retail sales increased 1.7% in March, topping economists’ forecasts. Core retail sales, which exclude autos, gas, building materials, and food services, also came in stronger than expected, rising 0.7%. This core measure is important because it feeds directly into GDP. However, even with gas excluded, higher fuel costs can still push up prices in other categories, which may be boosting the overall numbers.
What’s the bottom line?
Much of the increase was driven by a sharp jump in gasoline spending, as higher oil prices led consumers to pay more at the pump – not necessarily because overall spending has increased. That means the headline strength may not reflect a surge in broader economic activity. If elevated energy prices persist, it will be important to monitor whether spending on discretionary items begins to slow.
Jobless Claims Reflect Shifting Work Trends
Initial jobless claims edged up by 6,000 to 214,000 in the latest week, remaining low by historical standards. Meanwhile, continuing claims (those receiving benefits beyond the first week) increased by 12,000 to 1.821 million.
What’s the bottom line?
The broader unemployment trends have been holding in a similar pattern for some time. Low levels of new claims may partly reflect the growing role of gig and contract work, with some displaced workers turning to flexible income opportunities instead of filing for unemployment, especially since benefits often don’t fully cover living expenses.
Meanwhile, continuing claims remain elevated, suggesting that unemployed workers are taking longer to find new jobs. Because these claims have remained high for an extended period, some individuals may also be nearing or have reached the end of their benefits.
What to Look for This Week
Housing will be in the spotlight, with fresh home price data from Case-Shiller and the FHFA arriving Tuesday, followed by new home construction figures on Wednesday.
Also beginning Tuesday, the Federal Reserve kicks off its third policy meeting of the year, with its decision and press conferences scheduled for Wednesday afternoon, an event markets will be watching closely for any signals on the path forward for interest rates.
Thursday then brings a full slate of key updates, including the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge (the Personal Consumption Expenditures index), the first estimate of first quarter GDP, and the latest jobless claims.
Technical Picture
Mortgage Bonds ended last week back above their 200-day Moving Average, a positive sign, and near resistance at the 50-day Moving Average. Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield remains below the key 4.332% Fibonacci level, leaving room to move lower before reaching support at its 50-day Moving Average
Housing will be in the spotlight, with fresh home price data from Case-Shiller and the FHFA arriving Tuesday, followed by new home construction figures on Wednesday.
Also beginning Tuesday, the Federal Reserve kicks off its third policy meeting of the year, with its decision and press conferences scheduled for Wednesday afternoon, an event markets will be watching closely for any signals on the path forward for interest rates.
Thursday then brings a full slate of key updates, including the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge (the Personal Consumption Expenditures index), the first estimate of first quarter GDP, and the latest jobless claims.
