February Jobs Report Falls Well Short of Expectations
February job growth came in well below estimates, according to the latest report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The economy lost 92,000 jobs, compared with forecasts calling for a gain of about 60,000. The unemployment rate ticked up from4.3% to 4.4%.
What’s the bottom line?
The latest report points to a cooling labor market. In addition to February’s losses, earlier payroll estimates for December and January were revised lower by a combined 69,000 jobs. Average job growth over the past year now stands at just 13,000 per month, and only 6,000 per month over the last three months.
Meanwhile, the average duration of unemployment rose to 25.7 weeks, the highest level in four years, suggesting it’s taking longer for job seekers to find new work.
ADP Data Beats Forecasts but Reveals Soft Spots
While the government’s jobs report showed losses, separate data from ADP noted that private employers added 63,000 jobs in February, topping expectations of 50,000. Small businesses drove nearly all the gains (+60,000), while medium-sized firms cut7,000 jobs and large companies added 10,000.
What’s the bottom line?
Even though ADP beat forecasts, hiring was uneven, with the gains concentrated in a handful of sectors. At the same time, switching jobs no longer delivers the big pay bump it once did. Job switchers are still seeing higher annual pay growth (6.3%) than those who stay put (4.5%), but the gap has narrowed to 1.8% – the smallest on record. That suggests the labor market is becoming less competitive.
Other Labor Market Indicators Point to Cooling
Several additional indicators point to a labor market that is losing momentum.
Revelio Labs reported 16,700 job losses in February in its non-farm payroll release. The firm gained attention last fall when its data helped fill the gap during the government shutdown.
Unemployment claims remain relatively low, with 213,000 new claims filed. However, this figure may not fully capture layoffs in today's economy. Many displaced workers are turning to gig or freelance work instead of filing for unemployment benefits, often because those benefits don’t fully cover essential costs like housing, utilities, and insurance.
Continuing unemployment claims rose by 46,000 to 1.868 million. This measure tracks people who remain on unemployment benefits and suggests that job seekers are taking longer to find new positions.
Layoff and hiring announcements tell a similar story. Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported nearly 50,000 job cuts in February, following just over 108,000 in January. Combined layoffs in January and February rank among the highest for those two months since 2009.
Meanwhile, hiring plans remain subdued. Companies announced just 18,061 planned hires through the first two months of the year, a 56% drop compared with the same period last year.
What’s the bottom line?
Higher continuing unemployment claims, elevated layoff announcements, and weak hiring plans all reinforce the view that the labor market is gradually cooling.
Home Price Forecast Shows Opportunities for Buyers
Home prices slipped just 0.1% in January, according to Cotality’s latest Home Price Insights report. Despite the small monthly dip, values are still up 0.7% compared to a year ago, only slightly below December’s 0.9% annual pace.What’s the bottom line?
The longer-term trend is encouraging. Cotality expects home prices to rise 4.4% over the next year, pointing to potential relief in mortgage rates and ongoing buyer demand.
And over time, real estate continues to build wealth. For example, a $500,000 home appreciating at 4% would gain about$20,000 in value in just one year, showing how even moderate appreciation can add up.
What to Look for This Week
Two key inflation reports are on deck: February’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Wednesday and January’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report on Friday. The PCE release was delayed due to last fall’s government shutdown.
Housing data will also be in focus. Existing Home Sales will be released on Tuesday, home builder confidence arrives on Wednesday, and new home construction numbers follow on Thursday.
On the labor front, weekly unemployment claims come out on Thursday. Then, on Friday, we’ll get the latest job openings data along with the second estimate of fourth-quarter 2025 GDP.
Technical Picture
Mortgage Bonds moved lower last week as the conflict in the Middle East and rising oil prices raised concerns about inflation. They ended the week below their 100-day Moving Average.
Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield finished the week trading in a new range. It faces resistance at its 50-day Moving Average, while support sits near a triple floor made up of the 25-day and 100-day Moving Averages, along with the 4.126% Fibonacci level.
All data and analysis are provided by MBS Highway.
Call me anytime to continue the dialogue.
Blessings,
Mike Nelson, CEO - Efficient Lending, Inc
